Thought it might be interesting to look at the kolpak/EU passport situation, spurred on by
Cricinfo's story on Stiaan van Zyl becoming one of Sussex's two overseas for next season whilst David Wiese is released (but may get a T20 specific deal). I've relied a bit on Wikipedia's understanding of who has an actual UK passport and who's here on a Dutch/German/Kolpak one that will no longer be valid, so this may not be correct throughout. Van Zyl being an overseas suggests that the rules around recent international caps may be relaxed a bit?
Derbyshire:Leus du Plooy (Kolpak)
Wayne Madsen (UK passport)
Michael Cohen (EU passport)
Dustin Melton (UK passport)
Ravi Rampaul (Kolpak)
Madsen and Melton are safe. I think Rampaul is probably done at the age of 35. Du Plooy would likely get an overseas slot as he's their best batsman. Cohen perhaps not.
DurhamFarhaan Behardien (Kolpak)
Sean Dickson (UK passport)
Gareth Harte (UK passport)
David Bedingham (UK ancestry visa)
It's less clear how ancestry visas will work, but Behardien getting an overseas slot seems feasible.
EssexRyan ten Doeschate (Dutch)
Simon Harmer (Kolpak)
Shane Snater (Dutch)
Matt Quinn (UK passport)
Haven't seen anything to say ten Doeschate is retiring. Harmer is a shoe-in for an overseas spot, wouldn't be surprised it they kept both although that depends whether they want Siddle back.
GlamorganNick Selman (UK passport)
Chris Cooke (UK passport)
Tom Cullen (UK passport)
Michael Hogan (UK passport)
Timm van der Gugten (Dutch)
Marchant de Lange (UK passport)
Much less screwed than I thought they'd be, UK passports all over here. Could see vdG getting an overseas spot as he's probably cheaper than an international.
Gloucestershire
Graeme van Buuren (UK passport)
Jerome Taylor (Kolpak)
Taylor is already confirmed as one of the overseas for next season, no other worries here as most of their players are from Middlesex rather than South Africa
Hampshire
Kyle Abbott (Kolpak)
Ian Holland (UK passport)
Seem to have themselves sorted already - Roussow has gone, Edwards has gone, Abbott confirmed as an overseas for next season.
KentHeino Kuhn (Kolpak)
Grant Stewart (EU passport)
Nathan Gilchrist (UK passport)
Fred Klaassen (Dutch)
Tim Groenewald (UK passport)
Kuhn seems like he would get an overseas spot. Stewart and Klasssen less likely.
LancashireDane Vilas (Kolpak)
Vilas tried to get dispensation for his wife's passport but failed, pretty sure he'll get an overseas spot at Lancs though.
LeicestershireNick Welch (UK passport)
Colin Ackermann (Dutch)
Dieter Klein (German)
Ackermann is club captain so you think would get an overseas spot. Klein perhaps not, although I'm not sure if associate nations players will still be allowed to play or if that was only ever EU ones.
MiddlesexNathan Sowter (UK passport)
No issues here
Northamptonshire
Richard Levi (UK passport)
Gareth Berg (Italy)
Ricardo Vasconcelos (EU passport)
Brandon Glover (Dutch)
Blessing Muzarabini (Kolpak)
One of the more interesting sets here as there are players who are probably nearly worth the overseas place. If money is tight I wouldn't be surprised to see Vasconcelos and one of the bowlers getting the nod.
NottinghamshireNo non-UK players
Somerset
Eddie Byrom (Irish passport)
Roelof van der Merwe (Dutch)
I'm not totally sure but I think Irish passports may still be fine. But frankly who knows. Roelof may get a T20 overseas gig, very little chance of a first class one.
Surrey
Hashim Amla (Kolpak)
Dan Moriarty (UK passport)
Conor McKerr (UK passport)
Morne Morkel (Kolpak)
Gotta think Amla and Morkel will transfer to overseas registrations and continue to be two of the best overseas around. Does mean that Surrey can't bring in anyone else though.
Sussex
Stiaan van Zyl (Kolpak)
David Wiese (Kolpak)
Delray Rawlins (UK passport, I think)
Mitch Claydon (UK passport)
Already announced van Zyl as an overseas player alongside Travis Head for next season, Wiese potentially for T20 but released for now.
Warwickshire
Ryan Sidebottom (UK passport)
Nothing to see here
Worcestershire
Wayne Parnell (Kolpak)
Gareth Roderick (UK passport)
Riki Wessels (UK passport)
Parnell as an overseas would make sense, depends if his contract is up.
Yorkshire
Matt Pillans (UK passport)
Duanne Olivier (Kolpak)
Olivier as an overseas is more or less confirmed